Somaya Ali *

 “He who wants to plunge Lebanon into chaos or collapse,

must expect the inconceivable from us, and time will tell…”

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah

February 16, 2023

What Hezbollah’s S.G. declared to the world in commemoration of the party’s fallen leaders last week was not a threat. It was much more, especially when we tackle its background, significance and repercussions.

Sayyed Nasrallah’s declaration last Thursday (February 16) was a new equation, added to the ‘War of Equations’ that has been ongoing since the emergence of the resistance. This ‘war of equations’ came to light in 1996, the moment the so-called “April Agreement” was endorsed, after the 16-day aggression known by the Israeli enemy as “Operation Grapes of Wrath”.

The 1996 understanding allowed the resistance to obtain its right to defend its citizens and land and thus liberate Lebanon in 2000 after the enemy failed to achieve victory.

Although each equation set by Hezbollah had its circumstances, they all charted the trajectory of possibilities, in terms of the resistance’s goals and performance at all levels. Today, and after a long journey of capabilities buildup, Hezbollah managed at a great degree to impose its red lines on the Israeli enemy, based on the “actions speak louder than words” principle.

Hezbollah Equations

These equations include the ‘Prisoners’ Equation’ in 2004 and the ‘Great Deterrence Equation’, which was a result of the ‘Divine Victory’ following the 33-day war in July 2006. Another equation can be added to list. In 2019, Hezbollah declared that any attack on its facilities or individuals in Lebanon or Syria will be met with a similar response. The ‘war of Equations’ hasn’t ended here, as it also includes the ‘Air Deterrence Equation’, which prevented the Israeli drones from penetrating Lebanese airspace (also in 2019).  Lastly, the ‘Karish Equation’, which served as a cornerstone for the launch of the maritime deal in October 2022, has safeguarded Lebanon’s right to its oil and gas resources.

The last two equations, were not imposed as a direct result of a military confrontation, as other equations were. Rather, they prevented a potential war. One of the reasons behind the efficacy of the ‘Karish Equation’ was Sayyed Nasrallah’s subtle timing. The Hezbollah S.G. declared this equation at a time of urgent need for stability in a resource-rich region in light of the current international circumstances. Furthermore, all realize, the enemy and the friend, that the Lebanese resistance party possesses a large number of wild cards and knows how to play them.

‘Karish Equation’

The ‘Karish Equation”, meanwhile, defused tensions and accomplished a major national achievement, the maritime deal, while sparing the country a costly military confrontation. The aforementioned equation represented a crucial turning point in accumulating power against all enemies, not only the Israeli enemy. Consequently, Hezbollah ended up in a state that enables it to highly curb its enemy and to impose its conditions by far.

On October 27, 2022, the maritime deal was finalized. The resistance remained cautiously optimistic, taking into account the high probability of procrastination in the process of oil and gas drilling over several circumstances, mainly the political paralysis in Lebanon.

And that what really happened: Former President Michel Aoun’s term ended in late October, as Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government has been in caretaker status. The power vacuum was then followed by a US-sponsored judicial battle in January between Investigative Judge into 2020 Beirut Port Blast Tarek Bitar and Public Prosecutor of Cassation Judge Ghassan Oweidat.

The latest tensions increase the threat of all-out chaos which is a normal result of the unprecedented economic, financial, and social pressure since 2019. Although the reasons behind the economic crisis in the country have been related to well-known internal circumstances, the key cause has been the US’ blockade and continued pressure to prevent what would relieve tensions.

Civil Strife?

Hezbollah is fully aware that the country is on the verge of a ‘civil strife’, which aims to force the resistance party to accept certain compromises regarding the identity of the president, the structure of the state and the government formation. According to a report released by Lebanese newspaper “Al-Akhbar,” Hezbollah knew that Washington has recently recruited spies to manufacture Molotov cocktails with the aim to target public institutions. Al-Akhbar’s report intersects with others released by media outlets that the US has intentions to dismantle the remaining state institutions as part of the same chaos scheme. It is necessary here to recall a previous warning by the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Barbara Leaf, that “Lebanon is open to all scenarios, including the complete disintegration of the state.”

The “Paris Five-Way Meeting” proved what was already confirmed: the US agreed with the other four countries (Saudi Arabia, France, Egypt, and Qatar) on the necessity to exert further pressure on the Lebanese powers to elect a new president.  Meanwhile, Saudi and Qatar reportedly demanded that the final statement contain a clear indication that the international community will impose sanctions on anyone who impedes the election of the forthcoming president. According to the report, the Saudi-Qatari demand was rejected by France, as the US remained silent until the Egyptian side interfered to ease tensions during the meeting which was then adjourned without issuing a statement.

‘Karish Equation’… To Be Continued

In face of these schemes, Hezbollah’s approach relied on neutralizing the US pressures in a bid to alleviate its repercussions on Lebanon by declaring the final equation: Chaos in Lebanon means chaos in the entire region.

“It was necessary here, to introduce a new factor to the rules of the game, a step that may provide an initial political way out of the crisis,” strategic expert, Dr. Hossam Matar commented on the equation declared by Sayyed Nasrallah.

So it’s the subtle timing again. The region is in continuous need for stability, particularly in its source-rich areas as the conflict in Ukraine is still at its height. Herein, the ‘Karish equation’ emerges as an ace card: the Zionist entity has begun to extract gas off the Palestinian coast, and any strike there would obstruct and would mean that things are back to square one.

* Edited by Marwa Haidar, translated by Areej Fatima Al-Husseini

Source: Al-Manar English Website