Ahmad Farhat
Translated by Al-Manar English Website
The Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal in 2021 inspired Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria. This influence was evident at a September 2021 symposium in Idlib titled “Jihad and Resistance in the Islamic World… The Taliban as a Model,” where HTS political leaders highlighted parallels between their group and the Taliban.
At the event, Abdul Rahim Atoun, a key figure in HTS, discussed the movement’s local focus within Syria and its efforts to establish foreign relations. The separation from Al-Qaeda was reportedly motivated by the global group’s chief Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s directive binding all Al-Qaeda branches, including HTS, to Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate.
Post-separation, HTS consolidated control in Idlib, forming a centralized government that managed public services and diplomatic outreach, notably with Qatar and Turkey. This strategy mitigated strikes by the US-led coalition from 2020 to 2024. Alongside these efforts, a ceasefire in Syria and progress toward a political resolution via the Astana track emerged.
After the armed factions took control of Damascus, the Astana process faltered, marking a transition led by Ahmad Al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad Al-Julani) in Damascus. Despite his initial focus on courting international support, Al-Sharaa neither delivered a unifying address to Syrians nor outlined a comprehensive economic plan, focusing instead on lifting US sanctions.
Al-Sharaa showcased Idlib’s “Salvation Government” as a governance model, prioritizing service provision over economic strategy. However, critics raised concerns over sidelining Syria’s historically robust agricultural and industrial sectors, which collectively contributed 47% to the pre-2011 economy. Shifting the focus to trade alone risks economic instability, as many Syrians rely on these sectors for livelihoods.
Hadi Kobeissi, Director of the Union Center for Research and Development, warned that a transition to a free-market economy could undermine Syria’s self-sufficient production model. In an interview with Al-Manar, he said that while such transition might improve short-term purchasing power, it complicates long-term recovery. Current economic strategies—including lifting subsidies and raising wages—risk inflation without boosting production.
Syria faces ongoing challenges in clarifying economic, living, and security policies, with rising prices for essential goods like bread highlighting the difficulties of restructuring the economy. Balancing fiscal policies without raising production remains a critical challenge for the country’s leadership.
Security Challenges and Faction Integration in Syria
Syria’s turbulent political and military history continues to shape its current security challenges, notably efforts to merge armed factions into a national army. Defense Minister Marhaf Abu Qasra, also known as “Abu al-Hassan 600,” has initiated discussions with faction leaders on integration, though no clear execution plan has emerged. Talks suggest a decentralized distribution of fighters across Syria to prevent independent regional military control.
Ideological divides among factions present obstacles to a full merger as desired by Al-Julani, leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Recent military appointments have fueled suspicions, with HTS-aligned faction leaders, including Anad Abdul-Moein Darwish and Khaled MOhammad Halabi, promoted to colonel ranks. These appointments excluded influential groups such as the Turkish-backed National Army in northern Syria and the Sham Front in Aleppo.
Hadi Kobeissi, highlighted HTS’ use of rank promotions, territorial allocations, and spoils distribution to encourage integration. He emphasized the need for a political framework that satisfies local factions and communities, raising questions about the army’s future role and its stance towards the Kurds.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, present integration challenges. Tensions have flared with recent battles between the SDF and the National Army over control of the Tishreen Dam, a vital water source in eastern Aleppo. Meanwhile, Druze-led armed groups in Sweida have resisted the new military administration’s entry into their southern territories.
Fears persist among factions about disarmament under the new administration, perceived by some as an attempt to monopolize power. Despite Al-Julani’s declared intent to draft a constitution and hold elections within four years, concerns linger over transparency and inclusivity. Critics note that recent appointments lack legal grounding, suggesting an effort to entrench HTS authority.
The controversial appointment of foreign militants as officers in the national army further exacerbates tensions. HTS defends these moves as recognition of loyalty over their fight in past conflicts.
Syria continues grappling with security instability. Efforts by the new authority’s security forces aim to restore order amid mounting challenges to maintain control and prevent chaos.
Political Challenges and National Dialogue in Syria
Uncertainty surrounds Syria’s future political system—whether it will adopt a parliamentary, presidential, or hybrid structure. Al-Julani’s call for a national dialogue has yet to garner swift support from factions and political groups, including the Syrian National Coalition.
A key obstacle to convening the dialogue conference is determining representation—whether by regional, sectarian, factional, or combined criteria. The anticipated outcome of this conference is the formation of a new government to replace the interim administration led by Mohammad Al-Bashir, accused of being aligned with HTS.
Drafting a new constitution remains another challenge, with Al-Julani projecting a two- to three-year process. Meanwhile, the issue of displaced Syrians living in northern refugee camps persists without a clear plan for their return home. Many have voiced concerns over insufficient relief supplies, holding the new government accountable.
HTS faces internal and external challenges as it seeks to engage in diplomatic outreach, aiming for sanctions relief for both itself and Syria. Amid these conditions, Syrian citizens continue to endure economic, security, and living crises with uncertain outcomes. The question remains: Will the future bring stability or further war and struggle?
To read Part 1 click here.
Source: Al-Manar English Website
