Numerous sources over the past week have reported en masse a cautious optimism over the finalization of a ceasefire deal in Gaza, putting a final end to the ruthless 14-month Israeli genocidal war waged on the strip after the heroic “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation on the 7th of October, 2023.
This would not, however, be the first time the deal approached finalization only for hopes to vanish over varying disagreements or political pressure. This current round of negotiations faces similar and new obstacles as well.
According to the Israeli Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, estimates from sources familiar with negotiation details said that the deal in Gaza is close, but “it is not a matter of days, but of weeks,” and there is still controversy between the parties about the identity and number of captives held with Hamas, their classification, and the identity of Palestinian prisoners set to be released as part of the swap deal.
An Israeli official familiar with the negotiations told the newspaper on Friday: “Israel and Hamas are closer than ever to a deal, and both sides are working seriously, or pretending to be, but they are working under a deadline, which is (US President-elect Donald) Trump’s entry into the White House (on January 20). Whether it is a matter of real or imaginary pressure, the common denominator among all parties involved seems to be that the time has come, and this must be finished.”
The official explained that despite these understandings, there are still some “mediocre disagreements” related mainly to the identity and number of those released, among those detained by Hamas, or Palestinian prisoners in occupation prisons.
The Israeli paper also described the controversy regarding the designation of releasing Israeli captives under “humanitarian” justifications, which prioritizes the sick, elderly, women and children to be released first as part of the deal. The controversy lies in the ambiguity surrounding the medical state of the captives and who of them are sick, healthy, or even could be counted among the sick, and what this could mean for the release of detained soldiers.
High-Profile Palestinian Prisoners
The second obstacle, which is causing massive rifts in the Zionist political wings, is the issue of the Palestinian prisoners, the total number to be released, and their identities. The Associated Press (AP) reported on Thursday that Hamas’ demands for prisoner release include high-profile names such as Marwan Barghouti.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition includes hardliners who oppose such releases, with some even pledging to quit the government if too many concessions are made. Many of these hardliners point to the 2011 prisoner release which included the freeing of Martyr Yahya Al-Sinwar, who is believed to be the architect of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack.
Two-phase Deal
For its part, Hebrew newspaper Haaretz reported that a weak point of the deal lies in the likely intention to divide it into two stages, adding that the mediators believe they will succeed in applying pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition, meaning that once implementation of the first stage begins, Netanyahu will find it difficult to retrace his steps or go back on his word.
The Israeli coalition cannot afford for the deal to fall apart during the transitional period between the two phases, which will lead to renewing the war and leaving the remaining detainees in captivity in the Gaza Strip, according to the Israeli daily.
The Israeli government will not be able to withstand the pressure that will be exerted on it, whether from abroad or from within Israeli society, it added.
Haaretz remarked, through the words of its military analyst Amos Harel, that the failure of the negotiations in the second part lies in understanding the considerations of the negotiating parties.
The decisive matter for Hamas is an end to the war and a complete withdrawal of the occupation army forces from the Gaza Strip, but it may agree to concede in the first phase, and accept a partial presence of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip in the first phase, during which the designated captives (the sick, women, children, and the elderly) among others will be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
“But Netanyahu,” Harel continued, “and certainly his far-right partners in the government, do not want the war to end and may find it difficult to pay the high price that Hamas will demand for the release of the remaining soldiers and civilians (along with the return of the dead captives’ bodies).”
For the families of the remaining abductees, this would be a disaster,” Harel said. “It is no secret that the prime minister depends, for his political survival, on his right-wing partners, and their opposition to concessions over the past year has been the main obstacle to the deal in Gaza.”
Under these circumstances, it is expected that negotiations may reach another dead end and the war will resume, the Israeli analyst concluded.
Source: Al-Araby Al-Jadeed and AP (translated and edited by Al-Manar English Website
