Israeli occupation forces persist in violating the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, conducting excavation and sabotage operations in villages they failed to penetrate during their recent aggression. These incursions are seen as attempts to compensate for setbacks faced due to Hezbollah’s steadfast resistance, which forced Israeli forces to retreat in several areas.
Today, Israeli enemy troops, including two Merkava tanks and additional military vehicles, advanced from their positions near the border town of Adaisseh towards Al-Taybeh and Deir Siryan, causing damage in those areas. The Lebanese Army maintained its deployment in the region, while Israeli forces reportedly warned UNIFIL against operating in the vicinity, subtly threatening the safety of international peacekeepers.
UNIFIL’s Stance and International Concerns
Candice Ardell, Deputy Director of UNIFIL’s Public Information Office, emphasized that the safety of peacekeeping forces is a top priority. She reiterated the Israeli enemy’s obligations under Resolution 1701 to ensure the freedom of movement and safety of UNIFIL personnel across southern Lebanon.
Despite these assurances, the Israeli occupation forces conducted movements in both eastern and western sectors of southern Lebanon, including between Al-Naqoura and Alma al-Shaab. This follows recent Israeli gunfire over Naqoura and controlled detonations in nearby villages. Additionally, Israeli enemy aircraft breached Lebanon’s airspace multiple times.
Expert Analysis: A Strategic Shift?
Lebanese military expert Brigadier General Dr. Hasan Jouni views these violations as attempts by the Israeli enemy to project power following its inability to claim victory during its aggression on Lebanon. Jouni suggested that Israel might be leveraging reported US guarantees granting it operational freedom in Lebanon, although such arrangements hold no legitimacy for the Lebanese state.
Three Scenarios Ahead
In a press interview, retired Brigadier General and military expert Mounir Shehadeh outlined potential scenarios in light of the ongoing Israeli enemy’s violations and the responses from the resistance and international actors to this escalation. According to Shahadeh, military projections indicate three possible scenarios by the end of the 60-day review period:
Retired Brigadier General Mounir Shahadeh outlined three potential scenarios as tensions continue:
- Israel’s withdrawal and cessation of violations.
- Israel’s withdrawal with continued sporadic violations.
- Escalation, with no withdrawal and sustained aggression.
Shehadeh warned that if violations persist, Hezbollah might resort to force, underscoring that political and international measures have been insufficient to deter Israeli aggression.
