The President of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, has asked the U.S. to open negotiations that would allow it to build more powerful ballistic missiles in order to counter an increasingly aggressive North Korea. On Friday, Pyongyang fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), its second this month, that flew about 2,300 miles straight up and crashed into the sea some 620 miles away. U.S. General H.R. McMaster confirmed early Saturday that Washington had accepted Moon’s offer, and would begin negotiations shortly.
The decision is remarkable change of direction for Moon, who came to office just two months ago. Moon campaigned on a platform that favored dialogue with North Korea. He’d also opposed the U.S. missile defense system, called THAAD. But on Saturday Moon asked his government to work with the U.S. to temporarily deploy the full THAAD system. The move will likely upset China, which says the missile defense system could be used to spy into its territory and that it would escalate tensions with Pyongyang.
China’s foreign ministry, in a statement early Saturday meant to scold North Korea, urged its leaders “to respect United Nations security council resolutions and stop all acts that could worsen tensions.” Then, after learning of Moon’s request to Washington, China issued an even more pointed statement to both allies, saying that “THAAD won’t solve South Korea’s security concerns, won’t solve the related issues on the Korean Peninsula and will only further complicate issues.”
North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, warned in January that his country was close to testing an ICBM that could deliver a nuclear warhead to the U.S., and many experts believe this is now possible—or at least it could be shortly. In its first test this month, North Korea launched a Hwasong-14 missile that flew into 4,000 miles into the atmosphere and cleared the Space Station. As my colleague, Uri Friedman pointed out, experts analyzed the rocket stages and capacity and believe it is capable of flying even farther, placing U.S. like Los Angeles, Denver, Chicago, possibly even New York City within striking distance. One of the last challenges for North Korea to be able to deliver a nuclear warhead is “reentry technology.” This allows an ICBM to endure the heat of descending back through Earth’s atmosphere, but it may already have that capability. Kim has said that future tests could demonstrate this.
Moon’s request to allow his country to build more powerful missiles touches on a 1970s agreement between South Korea and the U.S. The treaty was signed in exchange for U.S. help building the missiles, but limited South Korea technology with to a range under 500 miles and with payloads no heavier than a half-ton. The limits were placed to prevent an arms race in the regions, but with North Korea’s aggression, Moon said his country needs more firepower. Five hundred miles is far enough to reach all of North Korea, so officials will likely ask to increase payload, which would ensure North Korea could destroy underground silos and locations of Pyongyang’s leadership. Any increase, however, is likely to upset China.
The Trump administration has grown increasingly frustrated with Beijing, which is North Korea’s largest trading partner. On Saturday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson blamed China and Russia for allowing Pyongyang to reach this point. “As the principal economic enablers of North Korea’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development program, China and Russia bear unique and special responsibility for this growing threat to regional and global stability,” Tillerson said. The Trump administration has pushed China to intervene, but Beijing has been reluctant. The Trump administration even placed sanctions on a Chinese bank it accused of funding North Korea. That sanctions were signed on by Japan, but Moon declined.
At the United Nations Security Council, the U.S. is pushing both Russian and China to enact severe sanctions against North Korea, something that’s further frustrated Kim. In a statement released shortly after Friday’s launch, North Korea’s official news agency, KCNA, said, “If the Yankees brandish the nuclear stick on this land again despite our repeated warnings, we will clearly teach them manners.”
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