Israeli war in southern Lebanon is increasingly turning into a strategic trap, analyst Ofer Shelah said, warning that Hezbollah’s evolving tactics and sustained attacks are dragging ‘Israel’ into a prolonged war of attrition.
Talking to Israeli Channel 12, Shelah, a journalist and director of the “Israel’s National Security Policy” program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), slammed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighting growing debate within Israeli analytical circles over the long-term sustainability and strategic outcomes of the war.
He said the latest events “have surprised only those who still believe the boasts of the prime minister and his ministers,” or those influenced by the “symbolic gestures such as the widely publicized arrival at Beaufort Castle.”
Shelah added that “veterans” of the 1982 battle for the castle had expressed “deep unease” at what he called the military’s attempt to invoke the historic operation to manufacture a “victory image.”
Hezbollah’s Islamic Resistance in Lebanon said on Monday that Israeli forces failed to establish control over Beaufort Castle (Qal’at al-Shaqif), dismissing Israeli claims of capturing the strategic site as a “media stunt” aimed at boosting morale among settlers in northern… pic.twitter.com/yKv3TSyzAH
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“For those who have awakened not only from the illusion of ‘total victory,’ but also from the belief that what cannot be achieved by force will be achieved by greater force,” Shelah said, “everything that has happened since the beginning of March is surprising only in that there are still those who are astonished.”
Hezbollah’s Tactics
According to Shelah, Hezbollah has demonstrated a capacity to adapt its tactics, withdrawing forces from exposed positions and preparing for a protracted guerrilla campaign. He noted that the Lebanese resistance group is increasingly relying on explosive drones as a central component of its operations.
“Hezbollah … demonstrated the resilience of those who learn from experience,” he said, describing a shift toward asymmetric warfare designed to erode Israeli forces over time.
Shelah argued that Israeli occupation of Lebanese territories in southern Lebanon have failed to translate into strategic advantage, saying the “presence of troops on the ground has not improved security for northern Israel.”
“The Israeli army’s occupation of territory proved meaningless in protecting the Galilee,” he said, warning instead that it “became an inevitable quagmire of operational and conceptual challenges,” with mounting casualties and a gradual erosion of military effectiveness and legitimacy.
Looking ahead, Shelah cautioned that a prolonged Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon could ultimately backfire by fueling renewed armed resistance.
“History teaches us that such a permanent Israeli military presence … will rebuild a violent resistance,” he said, adding that such a movement—whether led by Hezbollah or another group—would derive legitimacy from fighting occupation, much as Hezbollah itself did in the past.
Source: Hebrew media (translated and edited by Al-Manar)