An analysis by Israeli military correspondent Avi Ashkenazi frames the outcome of the 41-day confrontation with Iran as a stark reversal of expectations, what began as a “lion’s roar” from Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump ended as little more than a “cat’s meow.”
According to the assessment published in Maariv, the ceasefire now taking shape points to a strategic imbalance: Iran and its regional allies emerging strengthened, while ‘Israel’ and the United States face the consequences of an inconclusive, and potentially costly, campaign.
After 41 days of fighting that reportedly left more than 5,000 buildings damaged in Israel, Tehran is portrayed as having dictated key terms of the truce. Despite early high-impact strikes, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei, the Iranian system endured, with a new, “reportedly more hardline leadership stepping in,” according to Ashkenazi.
Direct hit reported on a Ramat Gan building after fresh wave of Iranian missiles pic.twitter.com/RmweQy05qs
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The Israeli analyst argues that, at the tactical level, Iran maintained leverage throughout the conflict—continuing missile fire until the final moments and resisting US-led proposals, ultimately shaping an agreement aligned more closely with its own conditions. The result, he suggests, is a deal that reflects elements of concession on the Israeli and American side rather than Iranian compromise.
Key unresolved issues underscore that imbalance, according to Ashkenazi. Iran has not relinquished its stockpile of enriched uranium, leaving its nuclear program intact pending future negotiations. Its ballistic missile program also remains unrestricted. Meanwhile, Tehran’s position around the Strait of Hormuz appears to have been reinforced, with implications for regional energy flows and maritime control.
Israeli “Setback” in Lebanon
Shifting into Lebanon, the Israeli analyst says: “The repercussions extend to Lebanon, where the situation is described as a clear setback for Israel. The ceasefire is expected to apply there without provisions to disarm Hezbollah or demilitarize southern areas.”
In this context, Ashkenazi warns that Hezbollah could soon emerge stronger than before the escalation, underscoring how Iran’s regional network remains intact.
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A newly released video documents a large-scale ambush in which Israeli soldiers ran away in a failed advance attempt in the southern Lebanese town of Taybe.
Full story in the first comment. pic.twitter.com/LV7FLD0j1k
“On the ground, Israel absorbed sustained attacks from Iran and allied fronts in Lebanon and Yemen. The country faces casualties, widespread infrastructure damage, and significant disruption, including the closure of its main airport during the اwar”
In Ashkenazi’s telling, the contrast between initial ambitions and final outcomes defines the campaign: a strategy that began with the force and confidence of a lion but concluded, under pressure and compromise, with far less impact, reshaping the regional balance in Iran’s favor.
Source: Hebrew media (translated and edited by Al-Manar)